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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending together. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

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